FINAL UPDATE: September 29, 2014

Baseball fans:

Dan McCloskey wins the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool! Dan is our tenth new winner in ten years. Johnny Cueto was one strikeout short of taking the NL SO category outright, preventing a joint victory by Jeff Gatland and Mark Watzke. Jim Kushner was also in the hunt well into the afternoon…

Here are the season category leaders, with bold indicating players we actually chose:

AL BA: José Altuve

ALHR: Nelson Cruz

ALRBI: Mike Trout (1)

AL R: Mike Trout (16)

ALSB: José Altuve

NL BA: Justin Morneau

NL HR: Giancarlo Stanton (3)

NL RBI: Adrian Gonzalez (2)

NL R: Anthony Rendon

NL SB: Dee Gordon

AL IP: David Price (1)

AL W: Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer (5), Jered Weaver

AL ERA: Felix Hernández (2)

ALSO: David Price

AL S: Fernando Rodney

NL IP: Johnny Cueto

NL W: Clayton Kershaw (12)

NL ERA: Clayton Kershaw (16)

NL SO: Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg (4)

NL S: Craig Kimbrel (18)

ALHBP: Mike Zunino

NL HBP: Jon Jay (1)

ALHBP: R.A. Dickey (2), Jeremy Guthrie, Bud Norris

NL HBP: Charlie Morton (6)

Fun facts:

- Our average score of 3.81 pts is our highest since 2010, and our average HBP of 45.14 is highest since 2009. Twelve entrants predicted at least four categories correctly, compared to seven entrants in 2012 and only two in 2011.

- Michael Orobona and Jeff Gatland own the only unique picks of 2014, choosing Mike Trout (AL RBI) and David Price (AL IP), respectively. Harvey Hawkins was the only entrant to successfully pick a batter that led his league in HBPs (Jon Jay with 20).

We hope this year’s pool was fun for everyone. Way to go, Dan!

-Jud and Dan

September 28, 2014

Dan McCloskey reclaims the lead, thanks to Stephen Strasburg’s 7 Ks against the Marlins. Johnny Cueto’s start in Cincinnati today should determine whether Dan holds on to win the tenth annual MLB Predictions Pool.

Dan’s competition is a bit more complicated. MLB made a surprise scoring revision regarding the Mariners’ 10-2 Tuesday loss to the Blue Jays, rendering four of the eight runs allowed by Felix Hernández unearned. The Seattle ace’s ERA is now 2.18 (down from the original 2.34), and only a trace above ALleader Chris Sale’s 2.17. Hernández is making his final start today in a do-or-die game against the Angels.

Here are today’s scenarios:

If Johnny Cueto gets less than eight strikeouts today, Dan is in first place.

If Cueto gets eight or more Ks AND Felix does NOT lower his ERA below Sale’s, Jim Kushner takes first.

If Cueto gets eight or more Ks AND Felix lowers his ERA below Sale’s, Jeff Gatland and Mark Watzke enter into a tie for first.

The possibility of as many as three (!) one-game playoffs on Monday may prevent us from declaring a winner after today’s games, but we’ll worry about that later. Stay tuned!

-Dan and Jud

September 26, 2014

Jeff Gatland takes the lead with one three-game series remaining in the 2014 season. Although five other entrants match Jeff with six points, our most realistic weekend scenarios yield only three outcomes.

Tuesday’s drubbing of Felix Hernández in Toronto(4.2IP, 7H, 8ER) gave Jim and Dan their ALERA point back in the name of Chris Sale, but it was an NL ace that turned our top five upside down. Clayton Kershaw’s 11K win over the Giants on Wednesday put the lefty on top in strikeouts, and earned a long-awaited point for twelve pool members.

Our winner will ultimately be decided on the strikeout totals of two pitchers this weekend: Stephen Strasburg on Saturday, and Johnny Cueto on Sunday. Strasburg and Cueto are tied with 235 Ks each, with Kershaw’s lead posted at 239. If Strasburg leads or ties for the season, Dan wins the pool. If Cueto ends in sole possession of the lead, Jim wins by HBP tiebreaker over Dan. Jeff preserves first place if Strasburg doesn’t catch Kershaw and Cueto falls short or ties.

We’ll touch base sometime after Strasburg’s start, and then pronounce our winner on Monday morning.

-Dan and Jud

September 22, 2014

Dan McCloskey clings to his lead as we enter into our last week of regular season baseball. Four entrants trail Dan by one point but possess higher HBP totals… Who has the best chance?

Dan and Jim Kushner watched their “two-point pad” shrink to one after Chris Sale’s most recent start (5IP, 9H, 5ER) opened the door for current ALERA leader Felix Hernández. Giancarlo Stanton (out for season) can’t realistically lose his NL HR honors, but he has already been passed by Adrian Gonzalez in NL RBI. This Hernández/Gonzalez combination puts HBP wizards Jeff Gatland and Mark Watzke right in the mix for the tenth MLB Predictions Pool prize.

The biggest threat to Dan’s lead is in the NL strikeouts category, where Stephen Strasburg currently tops runners-up Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. Strasburg’s 7K edge would seem decisive, if not for the likelihood of Cueto squeezing in an extra start this Sunday. We reported last week that Jim Kushner benefits from the NL SO shift, but at this point an overthrow of Strasburg would create a first-place tie between Jeff and Mark.

We’ll send out more info this week if anything changes. Follow @PredictionsPool on Twitter for fast top five updates!

-Dan and Jud

September 15, 2014

Dan McCloskey remains in the lead with just two weeks of baseball left in the 2014 season. Jim Kushner trails by a point but tops Dan by 8 HBPs, while Michael Orobona sits one point behind Jim in third.

Dan and Jim owe much of their success to two picks: Giancarlo Stanton (NL HR) and Chris Sale (AL ERA). This two-point pad seems secure, barring at least two disastrous late-September starts by Sale. Jason Salavon (who also picked Stanton for NL HR) could conceivably make a title run if Adam Wainwright takes NL wins over Clayton Kershaw, but Jason would still need two HBPs to catch Dan.

Can Kushner catch our leading McCloskey? Greg Holland’s sore triceps probably protected Dan’s Achilles heel in the AL saves race, but Jim may find hope in another pitching category: NL strikeouts. Johnny Cueto is within 3 Ks of longtime leader Stephen Strasburg, with three starts potentially remaining for each ace. Jim ties Dan in category points and wins by HBP tiebreaker if Cueto passes Strasburg.

Looks like we might come down to the wire this year… Back next Monday!

-Dan and Jud

September 8, 2014

Dan McCloskey moves into first after two weeks in second, with Jim Kushner and Jason Salavon close behind. Dan’s current score is identical to last week’s, but Jim and seven others lost a point when idle closer Greg Holland was passed by Fernando Rodney in AL saves. The Royal reliever is still day-to-day.

Michael Orobona landed a unique pick point over the weekend with Mike Trout for AL RBI. Trout leads a tight category race, with the top five players (including Miguel Cabrera) separated by just four runs batted in. The NL RBI title also warrants attention after yesterday’s performance by Adrian Gonzalez (2 HR, 6 RBI)…

See you next Monday!

-Dan and Jud

September 1, 2014

Jim Kushner remains on top in our first September update of the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool, with Dan McCloskey trailing by 9 HBPs. Jeff Gatland and Michael Orobona are both strong in the tiebreaker column but sit two category points behind Jim and Dan.

Chris Sale did indeed take the AL ERA lead last Sunday against the Yankees in a somewhat shaky no-decision effort (6IP, 4R, 0ER), giving leaders Jim and Dan point #6. Five other entrants lost a point when Adam Wainwright failed a second straight bid for his sixteenth win… The Cardinal ace went 2-4 with a 5.17 ERA for the month, surrendering almost as many runs in August as in May, June, and July combined.

Enjoy your Labor Day!

-Dan and Jud