FINAL UPDATE: September 29, 2014

Baseball fans:

Dan McCloskey wins the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool! Dan is our tenth new winner in ten years. Johnny Cueto was one strikeout short of taking the NL SO category outright, preventing a joint victory by Jeff Gatland and Mark Watzke. Jim Kushner was also in the hunt well into the afternoon…

Here are the season category leaders, with bold indicating players we actually chose:

AL BA: José Altuve

ALHR: Nelson Cruz

ALRBI: Mike Trout (1)

AL R: Mike Trout (16)

ALSB: José Altuve

NL BA: Justin Morneau

NL HR: Giancarlo Stanton (3)

NL RBI: Adrian Gonzalez (2)

NL R: Anthony Rendon

NL SB: Dee Gordon

AL IP: David Price (1)

AL W: Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer (5), Jered Weaver

AL ERA: Felix Hernández (2)

ALSO: David Price

AL S: Fernando Rodney

NL IP: Johnny Cueto

NL W: Clayton Kershaw (12)

NL ERA: Clayton Kershaw (16)

NL SO: Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg (4)

NL S: Craig Kimbrel (18)

ALHBP: Mike Zunino

NL HBP: Jon Jay (1)

ALHBP: R.A. Dickey (2), Jeremy Guthrie, Bud Norris

NL HBP: Charlie Morton (6)

Fun facts:

- Our average score of 3.81 pts is our highest since 2010, and our average HBP of 45.14 is highest since 2009. Twelve entrants predicted at least four categories correctly, compared to seven entrants in 2012 and only two in 2011.

- Michael Orobona and Jeff Gatland own the only unique picks of 2014, choosing Mike Trout (AL RBI) and David Price (AL IP), respectively. Harvey Hawkins was the only entrant to successfully pick a batter that led his league in HBPs (Jon Jay with 20).

We hope this year’s pool was fun for everyone. Way to go, Dan!

-Jud and Dan

September 28, 2014

Dan McCloskey reclaims the lead, thanks to Stephen Strasburg’s 7 Ks against the Marlins. Johnny Cueto’s start in Cincinnati today should determine whether Dan holds on to win the tenth annual MLB Predictions Pool.

Dan’s competition is a bit more complicated. MLB made a surprise scoring revision regarding the Mariners’ 10-2 Tuesday loss to the Blue Jays, rendering four of the eight runs allowed by Felix Hernández unearned. The Seattle ace’s ERA is now 2.18 (down from the original 2.34), and only a trace above ALleader Chris Sale’s 2.17. Hernández is making his final start today in a do-or-die game against the Angels.

Here are today’s scenarios:

If Johnny Cueto gets less than eight strikeouts today, Dan is in first place.

If Cueto gets eight or more Ks AND Felix does NOT lower his ERA below Sale’s, Jim Kushner takes first.

If Cueto gets eight or more Ks AND Felix lowers his ERA below Sale’s, Jeff Gatland and Mark Watzke enter into a tie for first.

The possibility of as many as three (!) one-game playoffs on Monday may prevent us from declaring a winner after today’s games, but we’ll worry about that later. Stay tuned!

-Dan and Jud

September 26, 2014

Jeff Gatland takes the lead with one three-game series remaining in the 2014 season. Although five other entrants match Jeff with six points, our most realistic weekend scenarios yield only three outcomes.

Tuesday’s drubbing of Felix Hernández in Toronto(4.2IP, 7H, 8ER) gave Jim and Dan their ALERA point back in the name of Chris Sale, but it was an NL ace that turned our top five upside down. Clayton Kershaw’s 11K win over the Giants on Wednesday put the lefty on top in strikeouts, and earned a long-awaited point for twelve pool members.

Our winner will ultimately be decided on the strikeout totals of two pitchers this weekend: Stephen Strasburg on Saturday, and Johnny Cueto on Sunday. Strasburg and Cueto are tied with 235 Ks each, with Kershaw’s lead posted at 239. If Strasburg leads or ties for the season, Dan wins the pool. If Cueto ends in sole possession of the lead, Jim wins by HBP tiebreaker over Dan. Jeff preserves first place if Strasburg doesn’t catch Kershaw and Cueto falls short or ties.

We’ll touch base sometime after Strasburg’s start, and then pronounce our winner on Monday morning.

-Dan and Jud

September 22, 2014

Dan McCloskey clings to his lead as we enter into our last week of regular season baseball. Four entrants trail Dan by one point but possess higher HBP totals… Who has the best chance?

Dan and Jim Kushner watched their “two-point pad” shrink to one after Chris Sale’s most recent start (5IP, 9H, 5ER) opened the door for current ALERA leader Felix Hernández. Giancarlo Stanton (out for season) can’t realistically lose his NL HR honors, but he has already been passed by Adrian Gonzalez in NL RBI. This Hernández/Gonzalez combination puts HBP wizards Jeff Gatland and Mark Watzke right in the mix for the tenth MLB Predictions Pool prize.

The biggest threat to Dan’s lead is in the NL strikeouts category, where Stephen Strasburg currently tops runners-up Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. Strasburg’s 7K edge would seem decisive, if not for the likelihood of Cueto squeezing in an extra start this Sunday. We reported last week that Jim Kushner benefits from the NL SO shift, but at this point an overthrow of Strasburg would create a first-place tie between Jeff and Mark.

We’ll send out more info this week if anything changes. Follow @PredictionsPool on Twitter for fast top five updates!

-Dan and Jud

September 15, 2014

Dan McCloskey remains in the lead with just two weeks of baseball left in the 2014 season. Jim Kushner trails by a point but tops Dan by 8 HBPs, while Michael Orobona sits one point behind Jim in third.

Dan and Jim owe much of their success to two picks: Giancarlo Stanton (NL HR) and Chris Sale (AL ERA). This two-point pad seems secure, barring at least two disastrous late-September starts by Sale. Jason Salavon (who also picked Stanton for NL HR) could conceivably make a title run if Adam Wainwright takes NL wins over Clayton Kershaw, but Jason would still need two HBPs to catch Dan.

Can Kushner catch our leading McCloskey? Greg Holland’s sore triceps probably protected Dan’s Achilles heel in the AL saves race, but Jim may find hope in another pitching category: NL strikeouts. Johnny Cueto is within 3 Ks of longtime leader Stephen Strasburg, with three starts potentially remaining for each ace. Jim ties Dan in category points and wins by HBP tiebreaker if Cueto passes Strasburg.

Looks like we might come down to the wire this year… Back next Monday!

-Dan and Jud

September 8, 2014

Dan McCloskey moves into first after two weeks in second, with Jim Kushner and Jason Salavon close behind. Dan’s current score is identical to last week’s, but Jim and seven others lost a point when idle closer Greg Holland was passed by Fernando Rodney in AL saves. The Royal reliever is still day-to-day.

Michael Orobona landed a unique pick point over the weekend with Mike Trout for AL RBI. Trout leads a tight category race, with the top five players (including Miguel Cabrera) separated by just four runs batted in. The NL RBI title also warrants attention after yesterday’s performance by Adrian Gonzalez (2 HR, 6 RBI)…

See you next Monday!

-Dan and Jud

September 1, 2014

Jim Kushner remains on top in our first September update of the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool, with Dan McCloskey trailing by 9 HBPs. Jeff Gatland and Michael Orobona are both strong in the tiebreaker column but sit two category points behind Jim and Dan.

Chris Sale did indeed take the AL ERA lead last Sunday against the Yankees in a somewhat shaky no-decision effort (6IP, 4R, 0ER), giving leaders Jim and Dan point #6. Five other entrants lost a point when Adam Wainwright failed a second straight bid for his sixteenth win… The Cardinal ace went 2-4 with a 5.17 ERA for the month, surrendering almost as many runs in August as in May, June, and July combined.

Enjoy your Labor Day!

-Dan and Jud

August 24, 2014

Jim Kushner assumes the lead this week, becoming our fourth different update leader in five weeks. Jud Ehrbar, Dan McCloskey, and Jason Salavon follow Jim in a three-way tie for second.

Jim and Dan can distance themselves even further from the pack with a strong performance by Chris Sale in the Bronxthis afternoon. If the White Sox lefty goes eight innings with less than two earned runs (or at least three innings with no earned runs), then Sale takes the ALERA lead and Jim/Dan grab an extra point. Jim also pads his HBP lead with any plunks by Saletoday.

See you next time…

-Dan and Jud

August 18, 2014

Jason Salavon takes a turn atop the pool this week, followed by Daltry/Lovejoy and Jim Kushner. Four different contestants have held a lead since last Monday: the aforementioned three entrants and Jud Ehrbar.

Daltry/Lovejoy took a hit on Friday when Troy Tulowitzki became officially ineligible for NL BA honors; Tulo’s season-ending hip surgery was performed successfully on Friday as well.

Our next update should go out on Sunday the 24^th. See you then…

-Dan and Jud

August 11, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy reign supreme for the second consecutive update, with Jeff Gatland and Jim Kushner sitting in second and third. D/L are the first this season to lead an update with more than five points, as well as the first to hold a lead greater than one point. The dynamic duo has now topped 12 of our 16 updates.

Dalt/Love and Jeff scored a key point this week for NL RBI in the form of Adrian Gonzalez. Perhaps not coincidentally, they also currently own the only unique picks in the pool (D/L with Troy Tulowitzki in NL BA, Jeff with David Price in AL IP).

Jeff Gatland is also part of our HBP “big three,” along with Stephen Craig and Mark Watzke. Each lead the pool with 55 tiebreaker points, with all four of their HBP picks in double digits (Choo-11, Marte-12, Masterson-13*, Morton-19). Jeff, Stephen, and Mark are nearly on pace to reach Jon Pauley’s 2008 mark of 71 HBP in a single season (A-Rod-14, Utley-27, D.Cabrera-18, Owings-12).

* Justin Masterson had 11 hit batsmen for Clevelandthis year, and currently has 2 with St. Louis.

See you next week…

-Dan and Jud

August 4, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy are back in business, leading the MLB Predictions Pool in our first August update. D/L remain at five points while sixteen other entrants lost one in ALruns (Trout). Jim Kushner has sole possession of second place, with Dan McCloskey and Jason Salavon tied for third.

We emerged unscathed from the trade deadline, with no major picks potentially ineligible due to changes of league. Remember that HBP tiebreaker points continue to accumulate regardless of AL/NL switches (ex. Justin Masterson CLE to STL)…

However, Paul Goldschmidt’s hand injury over the weekend will certainly affect some scores. The D-back slugger was a strong candidate in the NL runs and RBI categories; his return in 2014 is doubtful.

See you next week…

-Dan and Jud

July 28, 2014

Dan McCloskey regains the lead outright, followed by Daltry/Lovejoy and Brian Wells in a tie for second. Frank Gatland sits in fourth as our only other entrant with five points.

Although our actual scores changed very little since last Monday’s update (six are identical!), the components of our point totals are quite different this week. Sixteen entrants gained an AL R point for Mike Trout, but thirteen lost one with Paul Goldschmidt for NL RBI. Goldschmidt paid three of us back in NL runs, while three other entrants lost their NL HR point with Giancarlo Stanton.

Sixteen of us finally got our Clayton Kershaw ERA point, while nearly everyone lost one for saves with Craig Kimbrel. Max Scherzer rewarded five entrants with a piece of the AL wins lead, and Chris Sale snuck under Felix Hernández in the ERA category.

See you next week…

-Dan and Jud

July 21, 2014

Dan McCloskey and Jason Salavon share the lead in our first post-All-Star update, with Daltry/Lovejoy trailing by 9 HBPs. Thirteen entrants benefited from Paul Goldschmidt’s recent ascension to the NL RBI lead.

Many more of us missed a chance at two points when Clayton Kershaw surrendered a game-tying 2-run dinger to Peter Bourjos in the Dodgers win over St. Louislast night. Kershaw’s no-decision (7IP, 3ER, 8K) kept him out of a tie for the lead in NL wins, and sent his ERA ballooning to 1.92.

Let’s wish Dan a swell time up in Cooperstown for HOF weekend!

-Dan and Jud

July 14, 2014 (All-Star break)

Daltry/Lovejoy are back in the lead as we head into the All-Star break… Dan McCloskey’s turn at the top is on hold with would-be AL ERA leader Chris Sale just one inning short of qualification. Clayton Kershaw suffers a similar fate in the NL, currently needing 2/3 of an inning to qualify for the ERA lead.

D/L and Jason Salavon achieved scores of interest over the weekend: both entrants had all five NL pitching categories correct after Saturday’s games (Wainwright IP & W, Kershaw ERA, Strasburg SO, Kimbrel S). The feat wasn’t repeated in today’s update due to Johnny Cueto’s 6 IP in Cincinnati (including an hour of rain delay!) and Kershaw’s aforementioned disqualification.

We’ll check in next Monday after season play resumes.

-Dan and Jud

July 11, 2014

Dan McCloskey is our new leader this week, with Jim Kushner and Jason Salavon in second and third. Daltry/Lovejoy are still in the mix with four points.

Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel finally joined the NL pitching leaders this week, resulting in our highest update point totals so far. Dan and Jim picked up a valuable AL ERA point courtesy of Chris Sale’s no-decision gem against the Red Sox last night (7.2IP, ER, 6K), while Harvey Hawkins and Amy Gill earned an AL BA bump from Adrian Beltré.

Thanks to Michael Orobona for submitting last week’s trivia question! To view the ten left fielders solution, click comments below.

We’ll send out a quick All-Star break update on Monday…

-Dan and Jud

July 3, 2014

Jason Salavon sneaks into the lead in update #10 and relegates longtime incumbents Daltry/Lovejoy to second place. D/L and seven other entrants lost a point yesterday when Fernando Rodney assumed the AL saves lead over KC’s Greg Holland. Predictions Pool co-founder Dan McCloskey makes his top-three update debut in third.

We haven’t pushed the baseball trivia this year due to a perceived lack of interest, but here’s an original question submitted by one of our very own entrants:

The New York Yankees have won ten World Series Championships in the last 55 years, twice as many as any other club. When the final out was made in each of these series, the Yankees have had ten different men playing left field. How many of them can you name?

You can email answers in a reply to Jud, leave a comment here (spoiler alert!), or just wait until the next update for the full ten player solution.

Have a great holiday weekend!

-Dan and Jud

June 28, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy remain on top in week nine, followed by Jason Salavon and Jim Kushner. We won’t see much change at the top as long as Troy Tulowitzki hovers above .350, which he’s been doing for the entire month of June.

Charlie Morton is beaning batters at a potentially historic rate. The highest recorded HBP total for a pitcher chosen in our pool is 19 by A.J. Burnett in 2010, which four entrants collected; Morton already has 15 at the halfway point this year. The last major league pitcher to hit more than 25 batters in a season was Jack Warhop, who hit 26 in 1909 with the New York Highlanders.

Enjoy the weekend…

-Dan and Jud

June 20, 2014

It’s eight weeks at the top for Daltry/Lovejoy, with Jason Salavon and Jim Kushner swapping their 2-3 positions from last week. Adam Wainwright’s missed start (elbow) and a superb losing effort by Felix Hernández (7IP, 3H, ER, 10K) account for the slight movement within our leaderboard.

Clayton Kershaw’s astounding no-hitter on Wednesday probably made a few of us scratch our heads and wonder, “Wow, could he actually win a category after missing the entire month of April?” The Dodger lefty is only three wins behind current leader Alfredo Simón, trails Strasburg by 27 Ks, and would place around seventh in ERA if he qualified… Keep scratching and we’ll revisit this one from time to time.

Summer!!!

-Dan and Jud

June 12, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy log their seventh consecutive week atop the leaderboard, with Jim Kushner and Jason Salavon sitting second and third. Jim and Jason have each finished either second or third in five updates this year.

Kushner and Salavon might look to the NL RBI category for help, where Paul Goldschmidt is just 5 RBI behind leader Giancarlo Stanton. Another resource is the tight AL BA race, with Miguel Cabrera (and two other players) within 6 points of Robinson Cano. The rest of us should pay attention too! Sixteen entrants picked Goldschmidt and/or Miggy in the aforementioned categories. Speaking of popular picks, Yu Darvish is making up for lost time in AL strikeouts (30 Ks over his last three starts)…

See you next week!

-Dan and Jud

June 7, 2014

June looks a lot like May with Daltry/Lovejoy still on top of the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool. Jason Salavon and Jim Kushner take second and third, with both entrants topping Dalt/Love in HBPs. Frank Gatland makes his top 5 update debut right below Dan McCloskey…

After last Sunday’s action, it appeared that Yasiel Puig would indeed overtake Troy Tulowitzki in the crucial NL BA race we highlighted in last week’s update. The Dodger slugger was within just three points of Tulo’s MLB-best .350 average on Monday morning; since then, Daltry/Lovejoy’s prized shortstop has gone 8-for-18 versus Puig’s 3-for-15. The two players go head-to-head this weekend at Coors Field.

See you next week!

-Dan and Jud

May 30, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy top their fifth consecutive update to complete their May sweep. Their unique Troy Tulowitzki NL BA pick has been the difference, as followers Jim Kushner, Jason Salavon, and Jud Ehrbar all easily beat Dalt/Love in the HBP tiebreaker.

Tulowitzki may see some competition soon from another entrant’s unique NL BA pick. Yasiel Puig is up 15 points to .348 since May 20^th, while Tulo has dropped 14 over the same span… If the trend continues, Jeff Gatland might gain a valuable point to complement his 30 HBPs.

Next week’s update will probably go out on Saturday instead of Friday. See you then!

-Dan and Jud

May 23, 2014

The May dominance of Daltry/Lovejoy continues, with John Agnello and Jeff Gatland close behind. Our leaders face several challengers, as our @PredictionsPool Twitter timeline shows Stephen Craig leading on May 19^th, and Jason Salavon in first on May 21^st. Jeff’s HBP total exceeds those of Dalt/Love and Agnello combined…

While today’s update average of 0.52 points is easily the lowest in several years, at least things are pretty close. Give the red-hot Miguel Cabrera one point on his batting average and John Agnello leads the pool with three points. If Zack Greinke beats the Mets last night Rob LaColla and Will Rice are suddenly in the mix. Don’t give up hope!

See you next Friday.

-Dan and Jud

May 16, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy rule the roost for the third straight update, followed by Jason Salavon and Will Rice. It appears that Chris and Michael’s unique Troy Tulowitzki NL BA pick will pay dividends for a while, although the duo’s HBP profile doesn’t compare favorably with Jason’s and several other entrants in our top third.

Miamiphenom José Fernández is scheduled to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery today, making the Marlin our third pool pitcher to exit for the year. Fernández was tied with Stephen Strasburg for the NL lead in strikeouts when he was shut down.

Thanks to all entrants for paying your dues!

-Dan and Jud

May 9, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy hold the lead in update #2, with Jim Kushner and Jason Salavon trailing by a pick. Dalt/Love were tops all week until Wednesday’s seven shutout innings by James Shields gave Jason an AL IP point and a slim lead. David Price promptly changed that yesterday with a “near-quality” start (5IP, 9H, 3ER) good enough to take the IP lead and point away from Shields and Salavon.

If your name still appears in redbelow, we still haven’t received your $20 entry fee…

-Dan and Jud

May 2, 2014

Daltry/Lovejoy lead the pack in our first full update of the 2014 MLB season, thanks to Troy Tulowitzki’s slim BA lead over teammate Charlie Blackmon. John Agnello trails by just two HBPs with Jim Kushner in third. Daltry/Lovejoy and Agnello are the only entrants with more than one correct pick…

Why so low? With most teams short of thirty games played, it’s a bit soon for meaningful stat analysis. However, early injuries to Clayton Kershaw (who represents over 40% of our NL pitching picks) and Yu Darvish (18.3% of ALpicks) have clearly hurt our numbers. In fact, no less than ten players picked for at least one category currently reside on the disabled list, with an additional two out for the entire season (Matt Moore and Iván Nova). On the bright side, Kershaw is penciled in for a Monday start against the Nats. And if you’re wondering about Miguel Cabrera, he’s 13-for-31 in his last seven games.

If your name appears in redbelow, you haven’t paid your $20 entry fee to Dan or Jud. Unpaid entrants will still be listed in future updates, but their scores will not appear until their fee is paid.

Updates will usually be sent out on Fridays this year. See you next week!

-Dan and Jud

Welcome to the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool!

Baseball fans-

Thanks for entering the tenth annual MLB Predictions Pool! Although two members left this year, we have two entrants returning from pool hiatus to restore our $420 jackpot.

We've attached a file containing the picks for all of this year's members, as well as a breakdown of picks by frequency. Please let us know of any errors! The grid and picks breakdown are also available at http://mlbpool.blogspot.com/ near the top on the right under “2014 Predictions Pool Info.” You can also use our blog site for news on relevant injuries (four five picks on the DL already!) and other pool-related info.

Dan will be using a new email for the pool this year. Please use his dmccloskey@gmail.com address from now on.

Be sure to send your $20 entry fee to either Dan or Jud by the end of April. All paid entrants will be shown in green on the "2014 Complete Pool Picks" link on the blog site. We’re also accepting payments by PayPal made to judehrbar@gmail.com.

Score updates will be emailed once a week, as well as posted on our website, and we tweet our top five in the standings almost every day at @PredictionsPool. Our first official score update should go out after about five times through the pitching rotations.

Have fun, and good luck!

-Jud and Dan

Pool invite and entry sheet

Greetings pool participants past, present, and future-

It's time to start making our picks for the 2014 MLB Predictions Pool!

This will be the tenth year of our little contest's existence. Karen McCloskey topped the 2013 pool, maintaining our streak of someone new finishing on top each year. Perhaps you'll be next?

(above sheet is VIEW ONLY)

The attached Word version of the entry form does a pretty good job of explaining the rules, but here's a refresher:

• You get credit for picking the league leader in a category only. If a player gets traded to the other league during the season, you're probably out of luck. For example, in 2008, CC Sabathia led the majors in innings pitched, but since he was traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee during the season, he led neither league. You'd get nothing for having picked Sabathia.
• Batting average and ERA leaders are subject to MLB's minimum requirements for qualification (3.1 plate appearances per game a player's team has played for batting average; 1 inning pitched per game a player's team has played for ERA).
• All entries must be e-mailed to Dan at dcmccloskey@yahoo.com or Jud at judehrbar@gmail.com by midnight (EST) of Friday, March 28. This is a firm deadline.
• $20 per person to enter.

We're always open to newcomers joining up. If you have anyone you would like to invite, please request approval from either Dan or Jud. All new entrants are required to submit their $20 entry fee, in addition to their picks, by March 28. Returning entrants may pay by April 30. The two games being played in Australia between the Dodgers and D-backs will take place before our entry deadline, but the stats will count!

We accept PayPal for your $20 entry fee (payable to judehrbar@gmail.com with any fees paid as sender), as well as cash or check mailed to Dan or Jud (addresses found in entry form).

The 2014 MLB Predictions Pool blog is still at http://mlbpool.blogspot.com/, and Twitter is still @PredictionsPool.

Any questions, let us know. Hope you're in for another year.

Good luck,

Dan & Jud